Week 14 - 2009
| Home | Away | Actual | Line | | Model Est. |
| Win Prob |
| Cover Prob |
CLE
| PIT
| | -10
| | -10.7 | | 20%
| | 47%
|
IND
| DEN
| | 7
| | 6.4 | | 73%
| | 49%
|
MIN
| CIN
| | 7
| | 5.5
| | 69%
| | 45%
|
TAM
| NYJ
| | -3
| | -7.2 | | 27%
| | 36%
|
KC
| BUF
| | 0
| | -3.0
| | 40%
| | 40%
|
CHI
| GB
| | -3
| | 1.1
| | 52%
| | 61%
|
ATL
| NO | | -10
| | -8.7
| | 26%
| | 53%
|
BAL
| DET
| | 13
| | 14.2 | | 88%
| | 55%
|
JAX
| MIA
| | 3
| | 1.9 | | 57%
| | 45%
|
NE
| CAR
| | 13.5
| | 12.2
| | 76%
| | 46%
|
HOU
| SEA
| | 6
| | 6.4 | | 73%
| | 52%
|
TEN
| STL
| | 13
| | 8.4 | | 70%
| | 36%
|
OAK
| WAS
| | -1
| | -5.4 | | 29%
| | 33%
|
DAL
| SD | | 3
| | 2.9
| | 60%
| | 47%
|
NYG
| PHI
| | 1
| | 1.9
| | 56%
| | 53%
|
SF
| ARZ | | -3.5
| | -1.5
| | 44%
| | 58%
|
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | Week
| | 9-4 | | 6-6 |
| | | | | | Season | | 112-59 65%
| | 83-84 50%
|
Week 13 - 2009
| Home | Away | Actual | Line | | Model Est. |
| Win Prob |
| Cover Prob |
BUF
| NYJ
| -6
| -3
| | -3.0
| | 39%
| | 50%
|
KC
| DEN
| -31 | -4.5
| | -7.6
| | 24%
| | 39%
|
PIT
| OAK
| -3
| 13
| | 14.0
| | 90%
| | 55%
|
JAX
| HOU
| 5
| 0
| | -4.7
| | 33%
| | 33%
|
IND
| TEN
| 10
| 6.5
| | 12.9 | | 77%
| | 65%
|
ATL
| PHI
| -27
| -5.5
| | -3.7
| | 38%
| | 55%
|
CIN
| DET
| 10
| 13
| | 11.8 | | 84%
| | 47%
|
| WAS | NO
| -3
| -9.5
| | -9.2 | | 21%
| | 51%
|
CAR
| TAM
| 10
| 6
| | 5.5 | | 66%
| | 47%
|
| CHI | STL
| 8 | 9
| | 8.2 | | 78%
| | 46%
|
CLE
| SD
| -7
| -13
| | -12.0 | | 15%
| | 52%
|
SEA
| SF
| 3
| 0
| | 1.2 | | 52%
| | 52%
|
ARZ
| MIN
| 13
| -3
| | 0.0 | | 50% | | 60%
|
NYG
| DAL
| 7
| -2
| | 0.1 | | 51%
| | 58%
|
MIA
| NE
| 1
| -5 | | -7.7
| | 30%
| | 42%
|
GB
| BAL
| 13 | 3
| | -2.5
| | 41%
| | 31%
|
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | Week
| | 9-4 | | 6-6 |
| | | | | | Season | | 112-59 65%
| | 83-84 50%
|
Week 12 - 2009
| Home | Away | Actual | Line | | Model Est. |
| Win Prob |
| Cover Prob |
| DET | GB | -22
| -11 | | -5.1
| | 36%
| | 66% |
| DAL | OAK | 17
| 14 | | 14.9 | | 91%
| | 53%
|
| DEN | NYG | 20 | -6.5 | | -0.6 | | 48%
| | 71%
|
| HOU | IND | -8 | -3.5 | | -6.0
| | 29%
| | 42%
|
| CIN | CLE | 9 | 14 | | 12.4 | | 84%
| | 45%
|
| MIN | CHI | 26 | 10.5 | | 5.3 | | 68%
| | 32%
|
| PHI | WAS | 3 | 9 | | 6.9 | | 73%
| | 43%
|
| BUF | MIA | 17 | -3 | | 2.2 | | 57%
| | 67%
|
| TEN | ARZ | 3 | 2 | | -3.3
| | 38%
| | 34%
|
| STL | SEA | -10 | -3 | | -4.5 | | 36%
| | 47%
|
| ATL | TAM | 3 | 12 | | 7.7 | | 74%
| | 35%
|
| NYJ | CAR | 11
| 3 | | 4.3
| | 64%
| | 55%
|
| SF | JAX | 17 | 3 | | 6.0
| | 70%
| | 60%
|
| SD | KC | 29
| 13.5 | | 11.5
| | 87%
| | 41%
|
| BAL | PIT | 3 | 2.5 | | 0.2
| | 52%
| | 43%
|
| NO | NE | 21 | 3 | | 2.1
| | 55%
| | 45%
|
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | Week
| | 12-1
| | 10-6
|
| | | | | | Season | | 103-56 65%
| | 77-78 50%
|
Week 11 - 2009
| Home | Away | Actual | Line | | Model Est.
| | Win Prob
| | Cover Prob
|
| CAR | MIA
| -7 | 3
| | 4.4
| | 63%
| | 53%
|
| DET | CLE
| 1 | 3.5
| | 2.8
| | 59%
| | 46%
|
| JAX | BUF
| 3
| 9
| | 1.2 | | 52%
| | 27%
|
| KC | PIT
| 3
| -10
| | -11.0 | | 16%
| | 47%
|
| BAL | IND
| -2
| 0
| | -4.5
| | 37%
| | 37%
|
NYG
| ATL
| 3
| 6.5
| | 5.8 | | 70%
| | 47%
|
GB
| SF
| 6 | 6.5
| | 0.3 | | 51%
| | 32%
|
| MIN | SEA
| 26 | 11
| | 4.7 | | 67%
| | 29%
|
| DAL | WAS
| 1
| 11
| | 9.6 | | 83%
| | 43%
|
| TAM | NO
| -31
| -11.5 | | -13.1
| | 16%
| | 46%
|
| STL | ARZ
| -8 | -9 | | -7.4
| | 25%
| | 54%
|
NE
| NYJ
| 17
| 10.5
| | 8.8 | | 74%
| | 45%
|
OAK
| CIN
| 3 | -9.5
| | -7.7 | | 24%
| | 54%
|
| DEN | SD
| -29
| -3 | | 1.6 | | 57%
| | 69%
|
| CHI | PHI
| -4
| -3
| | -2.1 | | 42% | | 52%
|
HOU
| TEN
| -3
| 5 | | 6.6
| | 66% | | 55%
|
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | Week
| | 9-5
| | 9-6
|
| | | | | | Season | | 91-55 62%
| | 67-72 48%
|
Week 10 - 2009
| Home | Away | Actual | Line | | Model Est.
| | Win Prob
| | Cover Prob
|
| SF | CHI
| 4
| 3
| | 0.5
| | 52%
| | 40%
|
NYJ
| JAX
| -2 | 6.5 | | 9.7
| | 80%
| | 61%
|
| WAS | DEN
| 10
| -3.5 | | -4.9 | | 30%
| | 44%
|
| PIT | CIN
| -6
| 7 | | 6.4 | | 78%
| | 45%
|
| TEN | BUF
| 24 | 6.5 | | -2.1 | | 43%
| | 29%
|
| MIN | DET
| 17
| 17 | | 11.3 | | 83%
| | 32%
|
| STL | NO
| -5
| -14 | | -17 | | 10%
| | 39%
|
| CAR | ATL
| 9 | -1.5 | | -1.0 | | 47%
| | 51%
|
| MIA | TAM
| 2
| 10 | | 6.1 | | 70%
| | 36%
|
| OAK | KC
| -6
| 2 | | 2.1 | | 56% | | 50%
|
| ARZ | SEA
| 11
| 8.5 | | 4.9
| | 71%
| | 36%
|
| SD | PHI
| 8 | 2 | | 0.1 | | 48%
| | 41%
|
| GB | DAL
| 10
| -3 | | -7.3
| | 27%
| | 35%
|
| IND | NE
| 1
| 3 | | 3.3
| | 58%
| | 48%
|
| CLE | BAL
| 16 | -11 | | -10.4
| | 18%
| | 49%
|
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | Week
| | 6-7
| | 2-8 |
| | | | | | Season | | 82-50 61%
| | 58-66 45%
|
Week 9 - 2009
| Home | Away | Actual | Line | | Model Est. | | Win Prob
| | Cover Prob
|
| JAX | KC | 3 | 6.5
| | 3.4 | | 62%
| | 39%
|
CIN
| BAL
| 10
| -3
| | -0.7 | | 46%
| | 58%
|
| IND | HOU
| 3 | 9
| | 10.5
| | 82%
| | 55%
|
| ATL | WAS | 14
| 10
| | 6.7 | | 75%
| | 35%
|
| TAM | GB
| 10
| -10
| | -6.3 | | 33%
| | 58%
|
| CHI | ARZ
| -20
| 3
| | -1.0 | | 44%
| | 31%
|
| NE | MIA
| 10
| 10.5
| | 12.3 | | 78%
| | 56% |
| NO | CAR
| 10 | 13.5
| | 14.7 | | 85%
| | 52%
|
SEA
| DET
| 12 | 10
| | 9.7 | | 78%
| | 47%
|
SF
| TEN | -7 | 4
| | 9.8 | | 72%
| | 64%
|
| NYG | SD
| -1 | 5
| | 3.0
| | 63%
| | 43%
|
| PHI | DAL
| -4
| 3
| | -0.6 | | 50%
| | 40%
|
DEN
| PIT
| -18 | 3
| | 1.3
| | 54%
| | 40%
|
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | Week
| | 7-5 | | 7-5
|
| | | | | | Season | | 76-43 64%
| | 56-58 49%
|
Week 8 - 2009
| Home | Away | Actual | Line | | Model Est.
| | Win Prob
| | Cover Prob
|
| BAL | DEN
| 23 | 3.5
| | -2.1
| | 39%
| | 25%
|
| CHI | CLE | 24 | 13.5
| | 13.1
| | 88% | | 47%
|
| BUF | HOU
| -21
| -3.5
| | 1.8
| | 57%
| | 68%
|
| GB | MIN
| -12
| 3
| | -0.4 | | 49%
| | 39%
|
| IND | SF
| 4
| 12.5
| | 14.2
| | 88%
| | 56%
|
| NYJ | MIA
| -5
| 3
| | 3.5
| | 63%
| | 52%
|
| DET | STL
| -7
| 4
| | 3.1 | | 61%
| | 44%
|
| DAL | SEA
| 21
| 9.5
| | 9.9 | | 83%
| | 52%
|
| SD | OAK
| 8 | 16.5
| | 9.5
| | 81%
| | 26%
|
| TEN | JAX
| 17
| 3
| | -1.0
| | 46%
| | 36%
|
| ARZ | CAR
| -13
| 10
| | 7.5
| | 72%
| | 42%
|
| PHI | NYG
| 23
| 1
| | -1.6
| | 47%
| | 44%
|
NO
| ATL
| 8
| 10
| | 12.5 | | 85%
| | 59%
|
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | Week | | 5-7
| | 4-7
|
| | | | | | Season | | 69-38 64%
| | 49-53 48%
|
Week 7 - 2009
| Home | Away | Actual | Line | | Model Est.
| | Win Prob
| | Cover Prob |
| KC | SD
| -30 | -5
| | -3.3 | | 33%
| | 56%
|
| STL | IND
| -36
| -13
| | -19.3 | | 6%
| | 30%
|
CIN
| CHI
| 35
| 1.5
| | -1.0 | | 46%
| | 39%
|
| CLE | GB
| -28 | -7.5 | | 0.9 | | 56%
| | 77%
|
| PIT | MIN
| 10 | 4 | | 5.3
| | 68%
| | 52%
|
| NE | TAM
| 28 | 14.5 | | 13.7 | | 84%
| | 49%
|
| HOU | SF
| 3 | 3
| | 1.6 | | 56%
| | 43%
|
| OAK | NYJ
| -38 | -6 | | -5.3
| | 31%
| | 50%
|
| CAR | BUF
| -11 | 7
| | -2.4 | | 43%
| | 20%
|
MIA
| NO
| -12 | -6.5
| | -9.5
| | 22%
| | 40%
|
| DAL | ATL
| 16
| 4
| | 6.1 | | 77%
| | 57%
|
| NYG | ARZ
| -7 | 7
| | 8.9 | | 83%
| | 58%
|
WAS
| PHI
| -10 | -7
| | -2.1 | | 40%
| | 65%
|
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | Week | | 10-3 | | 4-5 |
| | | | | | Season | | 64-31 67%
| | 45-46 49%
|
Week 6 - 2009
|
| Home | Away | Actual | Line
| | Model Est.
| | Win Prob
| | Cover Prob
|
WAS
| KC
| -8
| 6.5
| | 5.5 | | 77%
| | 47%
|
CIN
| HOU
| -11
| 5
| | 5.5
| | 76%
| | 52%
|
PIT
| CLE
| 13
| 14
| | 14.3
| | 93%
| | 49%
|
MIN
| BAL
| 2
| 3
| | 0.4
| | 52%
| | 38%
|
JAC
| STL | 3
| 10
| | 6.2
| | 75%
| | 37%
|
NO
| NYG
| 21 | 3
| | 7.3 | | 80%
| | 68%
|
TAM
| CAR
| -7 | -3.5
| | 1.7 | | 57%
| | 67%
|
GB
| DET
| 26 | 13.5
| | 8.6
| | 82%
| | 33%
|
OAK
| PHI
| 4
| -14
| | -9.5
| | 20%
| | 65%
|
SEA
| ARZ
| -24 | 3
| | 5.6 | | 77%
| | 63%
|
NYJ
| BUF
| -3 | 9.5
| | 5.6 | | 74%
| | 37%
|
| NE | TEN
| 59 | 9.5
| | 5.1 | | 81%
| | 25%
|
ATL
| CHI
| 7 | 3 | | 4.5
| | 70%
| | 57%
|
SD
| DEN
| -11 | 4
| | -3.2 | | 28%
| | 11%
|
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | Week | | 7-6
| | 8-4 |
| | | | | | Season | | 54-28 66%
| | 41-41 50%
|
Week 5 - 2009
|
| Home | Away | Actual | Line
| | Model Est.
| | Win Prob
| | Cover Prob
|
STL
| MIN | -28 | -10
| | -3.6
| | 34%
| | 77%
|
KC
| DAL
| -6
| -8.5
| | -7.2
| | 21%
| | 58%
|
CAR
| WAS
| 3 | 3.5
| | 0.4
| | 50%
| | 34%
|
PHI
| TAM
| 19 | 15
| | 13.8
| | 88%
| | 44%
|
NYG
| OAK
| 37
| 16 | | 13.3 | | 92%
| | 34%
|
BUF
| CLE
| -3
| 6
| | 5.0
| | 81%
| | 44%
|
BAL
| CIN
| -3 | 8.5
| | 9.9 | | 93%
| | 56%
|
DET
| PIT
| -8 | -10.5
| | -8.0 | | 17%
| | 64%
|
SF
| ATL
| -35 | 2.5
| | 3.5 | | 68%
| | 56%
|
DEN
| NE
| 3
| -3
| | 6.0
| | 87% | | 91%
|
ARZ
| HOU
| 7
| 5.5
| | 3.7 | | 68%
| | 44%
|
SEA
| JAC
| 41 | -3
| | 2.5 | | 63%
| | 75%
|
TEN
| IND
| -22
| -4
| | -7.3
| | 26%
| | 38%
|
MIA
| NYJ
| 4
| -1.5
| | -3.2 | | 34%
| | 40%
|
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | Week | | 9-4
| | 7-7
|
| | | | | | Season | | 47-21 69%
| | 33-37 47%
|
Week 4 - 2009
| Home | Away | Actual | Line
| | Model Est.
| | Win Prob
| | Cover Prob
|
| HOU | OAK | 23 | 9 | | -0.2 | | 49% | | 5% |
| JAC | TEN | 20 | -3 | | -1.6 | | 38%
| | 54%
|
| NE | BAL | 6 | 2 | | -1.4 | | 33%
| | 21%
|
| CLE | CIN | -3 | -5.5 | | 0.3 | | 52%
| | 87%
|
| KC | NYG | -11 | -8.5 | | -1.5
| | 44%
| | 90%
|
| CHI | DET | 24 | 10 | | 4.6 | | 81%
| | 10%
|
| WAS | TAM | 3 | 7 | | 3.6
| | 76%
| | 24%
|
| IND | SEA | 17 | 9 | | 8.0
| | 81%
| | 46%
|
| NO | NYJ | 14
| 7 | | 4.4 | | 79%
| | 31%
|
MIA
| BUF | 28 | -2 | | -0.7
| | 44%
| | 58%
|
| SF | STL | 35 | 9.5 | | 3.0
| | 73%
| | 13%
|
| DEN | DAL | 7 | -3 | | 3.3 | | 75%
| | 86%
|
| PIT | SAN | 10 | 6.5 | | 1.6
| | 67%
| | 12%
|
| MIN | GB | 7
| 3.5 | | 1.8
| | 67%
| | 36%
|
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | Week | | 9-3
| | 5-9 |
| | | | | | Season | | 38-17 69%
| | 26-30 46%
|
Week 3 - 2009
|
| Home | Away | Actual
| Line
| | Model Est.
| | Win Prob | | Cover Prob |
NYJ
| TEN
| 7
| 2.5
| | 1.2
| | 55%
| | 46%
|
| HOU | JAC
| -7
| 4
| | 7.1 | | 74%
| | 59%
|
PHI
| KC
| 20
| 9.5
| | 13.6 | | 89%
| | 66%
|
BAL
| CLE
| 31
| 13.5
| | 14.2
| | 88%
| | 54%
|
TAM
| NYG
| -24
| -6.5 | | -1.8
| | 46% | | 61%
|
DET
| WAS
| 5
| -6.5
| | -5.8
| | 30%
| | 53%
|
STL
| GB
| -19
| -6.5
| | -5.7 | | 31%
| | 52%
|
MIN
| SF
| 3
| 7
| | 4.6 | | 68%
| | 42%
|
NE
| ATL
| 16
| 4
| | 1.3 | | 54%
| | 42%
|
SEA
| CHI
| -6
| -2.5
| | 0.7
| | 51%
| | 60%
|
BUF
| NO
| -20 | -6
| | -4.1 | | 37%
| | 56%
|
SAN
| MIA
| 10 | 6
| | 6.9 | | 73%
| | 51%
|
CIN
| PIT
| 3
| -4
| | -8.4
| | 24%
| | 38%
|
OAK
| DEN
| -20 | -1.5
| | -0.3 | | 50%
| | 51%
|
ARZ
| IND
| -21
| 2.5
| | 1.4 | | 55%
| | 46%
|
DAL
| CAR
| 14 | 8.5
| | 3.8 | | 62%
| | 36%
|
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | Week
| | 11-3 | | 5-8 |
| | | | | | Season
| | 29-14 67% | | 21-21 50%
|
Week 2 - 2009
|
| Home | Away | Actual
| Line
| | Model Est.
| | Win Prob | | Cover Prob |
KC
| OAK
| -3 | 3
| | 3.7
| | 60%
| | 51%
|
TEN
| HOU
| -3 | 6.5
| | 9.5
| | 81%
| | 62%
|
NYJ
| NE
| 5 | -3.5
| | 3.8
| | 63%
| | 73%
|
GB
| CIN
| -7
| 9
| | 11.8 | | 85%
| | 60%
|
DET
| MIN
| -14
| -9.5
| | -6.1 | | 30%
| | 61%
|
PHI
| NO
| -26 | 1.5
| | 5.8 | | 70% | | 66%
|
ATL
| CAR
| 8 | 6
| | 3.6 | | 60%
| | 45%
|
WAS
| STL
| 2 | 9.5 | | 9.6 | | 82%
| | 51%
|
JAC
| ARZ
| -14 | 3
| | -2.5 | | 44% | | 33% |
SF
| SEA
| 13
| 1.5
| | 6.3 | | 72% | | 67%
|
BUF
| TAM
| 13 | 4.5
| | -0.1
| | 49% | | 35%
|
DEN
| CLE
| 21 | 3
| | 7.2 | | 71%
| | 62%
|
SD
| BAL
| -5 | 3
| | 2.0 | | 58%
| | 46% |
CHI
| PIT
| 3 | -3
| | -2.3 | | 42% | | 54%
|
DAL
| NYG
| -2
| 3
| | 3.5 | | 61%
| | 51%
|
MIA
| IND
| -4 | -3
| | 2.3
| | 58%
| | 67%
|
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | Week
| | 7-8 | | 6-7
|
| | | | | | Season
| | 18-11 62% | | 16-13 55%
|
Week 1 - 2009
| Home | Away | Actual
| Line
| | Model Est.
| | Win Prob | | Cover Prob |
PIT
| TEN
| 3 | 5
| | 5.8
| | 71%
| | 54%
|
ATL
| MIA
| 12
| 4
| | 5.5
| | 65%
| | 55%
|
CIN
| DEN
| -5
| 4
| | -0.5 | | 49% | | 37%
|
CLE
| MIN
| -14 | -3.5
| | -4.5 | | 35%
| | 46%
|
IND
| JAC
| 2 | 7
| | 10.9 | | 82% | | 63% |
NO
| DET
| 18 | 13
| | 15.6
| | 90%
| | 60%
|
| TAM | DAL
| -13
| -4.5 | | 1.4 | | 56%
| | 69%
|
CAR
| PHI
| -28 | -1
| | 0.5 | | 52%
| | 55%
|
BAL
| KC
| 14 | 9.5
| | 12.5
| | 87%
| | 62%
|
HOU
| NYJ
| -17 | 4.5
| | 1.5
| | 56%
| | 39%
|
NYG
| WAS
| 6 | 6.5
| | 7.7
| | 77%
| | 56%
|
ARZ
| SF
| -4 | 6.5
| | 5.1 | | 68%
| | 45%
|
SEA
| STL
| 28 | 7.5
| | 6.5 | | 73%
| | 47%
|
GB
| CHI
| 6 | 3.5
| | 7.1
| | 76%
| | 64%
|
NE
| BUF
| 1 | 10.5
| | 8.1 | | 75%
| | 43%
|
OAK
| SD
| -4
| -9
| | -6.5
| | 32% | | 64%
|
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | Week | | 11-3 | | 10-6 |
| | | | | | Season | | 11-3 | | 10-6 |